French Frenzy: The Politics behind France’s Elections
The quinquennial European parliamentary elections took place in France this June, where the country elects 81 members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from a range of political parties. MEPs act as representatives of France in the European Parliament, deciding on laws and legislation that impact the entire European Union. As a recent rise in far-right movements threatened current President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government, France braced itself for a potential political deadlock.
Expected to win, Macron’s centrist Ensemble party has been the incumbent political party for the past 7 years. After triumphing over Marine Le Pen’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) twice during the past two presidential elections, Macron’s party has historically dampened the far-right’s power for the past decade.
However, on June 9, E.U. election results revealed that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party had won the most votes while securing 30 of the 81 seats, with Macron’s centrist party trailing with 13 seats. This marked the first time since the Vichy regime that a far-right party gained such power in France. In the hearts and minds of many citizens, the specter of the World War II French puppet regime led by Phillipe Pétain brings back the horrors of the Holocaust and the collaboration with Nazi Germany.
Consequently, just one hour after results were released, Macron dissolved the parliament and set legislative elections for June 30 to fill all 577 seats in France’s National Assembly, using the powers granted to the president under Article 8 of the French Constitution. Macron’s call for a snap election was a way to question the French people about their voting choices. This time around, his plan was to listen to the people: if the RN were to come out on top, he would respect their decision and let the RN govern for the remainder of his term. Betting on the RN’s inability to govern, this would have given Macron an opportunity to prove to French citizens that people that putting the RN into power would be catastrophic in time before elections with higher stakes: the French are set to elect a new president in 2027 for a 5-year term, and, as is usually the case after presidential elections, their representatives in the National Assembly as well.
Unlike in the United States, France’s electoral system allows for a greater representation of third-party candidates. Contrary to the European Parliamentary elections, French legislative elections spread over two rounds of voting. On election day, a representative from any political party may be on the ballot. All candidates winning at least 12.5% of the total votes must go through a second round. However, if one of the candidates has won 50% of the votes, that candidate is declared the winner and no second round is called. If none of the candidates have reached the 12.5% mark, then only the top two move on to the second round. This past June, second round elections determined the distribution of parties in the French National Assembly.
In these elections, a new left-wing coalition, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), emerged, uniting Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left party La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the French Green Party, and the French Communist Party. This coalition signified the left’s attempt to dampen the right-wing party’s rising power, as the elections were split into three main parties: Macron’s centrist party, the left-wing coalition, and the right wing RN. With the NFP gaining momentum, many far-left and centrist candidates outside the coalition pulled out from the race after the first round, aiming to prevent RN from gaining an absolute majority and potentially placing RN leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister. On July 7, results confirmed that the NFP had won 182 seats, the most out of any political party, overcoming the RN’s 142 seats.
A week later, former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation, leaving Macron to appoint a new PM. Traditionally, the prime minister is selected from the party with the legislative majority. However, as no party had won the requisite 289 seats for an overall majority in the 577-seat assembly, Macron broke tradition by appointing Michel Barnier from the conservative Les Républicains party after months of negotiation. Barnier, best known as the E.U. 's top Brexit negotiator, holds a hard-line stance on immigration, shared by other conservative members like promptly appointed Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau and, of course, by Marine Le Pen and the RN. This alliance with conservatives has nudged Macron’s centrist policies slightly rightward, and, as a consequence, is already creating tensions in Macron’s new government. Left-wing supporters took to the streets to protest after outrage erupted, claiming that Macron avoided acknowledging the left’s victory by choosing Barnier as PM, calling it a “power grab”.
Macron’s ultimate goal remains to counter the rising power of the far-right, shown by recent wins for far-right leaders like Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Viktor Orbán in Hungary, and Herbert Kickl in Austria. Barnier’s uncompromising approach on immigration is familiar among members of the far-right all around the world, including in the United States with Trump’s strict policies on immigration along the southern border. This strong stance also pleases Le Pen, as her party is known for being anti-immigration and nationalist. How did the far-right party achieve power in the French European parliamentary elections given their controversial and extreme policies? In the case of these elections, where the RN secured a victory, a notable factor to consider is that the European election had a lower voter turnout, particularly among young people. Statista data shows that only 50% of French citizens voted in the European elections, 62% of those aged 18-24 abstaining, while 62% of voters 65 and older participated. Low youth turnout has been a key factor in the rise of far-right movements globally, showing the importance of youth participating in democracy. The RN has historically been seeking votes from the middle and older generation, as 35 to 40% of people aged 50 to 70 voted for the far-right in this past election. Since there has been a current trend in the abstention of young voters, far-right parties have been able to gain power, leaving left and centrist parties to be voted out. As recent far-right movements have gained power globally because of low youth voter turnout, it is important to recognize the significance of our democratic right to vote in order to avoid intense political paralyses that cause potential instability of strong democratic governments.
While Barnier’s appointment was controversial, given his conservative stance, Macron saw him as a compromise. According to Article 49 of the French Constitution, a motion de censure or a majority vote of no confidence allows the National Assembly to vote out an executive decision, which has historically led to the resignation of the government. This impacted Macron’s decision because Barnier is a figure the far-right might work with rather than immediately oppose, while his negotiating experience could ease potential clashes with the left. Macron’s selection of Barnier helped end a two-month political deadlock, maintaining his goal of centrist leadership despite the challenges of coalition governance.
Throughout the past few months, Macron has made a series of risky decisions: calling for snap elections and appointing a prime minister not from the winning left-wing coalition. These events have antagonized left-wing supporters and energized far-right leaders. This could lessen the impact of any calls from centrists like Macron to vote for them in order to counter the far-right, which the left has been voting to oppose for decades.
