Another Day, Another Politician on Trial
How the National Rally’s embezzlement trial may affect French public opinion, 2027 presidential election
According to the Connexion, former French presidents Jacques Chirac (1995-2007) and Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) have both been previously found guilty of some combination of corruption, embezzlement, “fake jobs,” bribery or violating spending limits. There are several parallels between French and American reactions to financial trials against influential political figures. In May, former and future U.S. President Donald J. Trump faced a landmark hush money trial and was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records. Adjacent to Jacques Chirac’s case in which the former president was granted immunity from prosecution while in office, the July 1 Supreme Court ruling in Trump v. United States appears to imply that presidents have complete criminal immunity regarding actions relating to core and exclusive presidential powers, presumptive immunity for other official presidential acts and no immunity for unofficial acts.
As the former leader of France’s far-right political party stands trial for accusations of embezzlement of European Union funds, there is far more at risk than just public image or money. The National Rally, a right-wing nationalist French political party founded in 1972, is currently experiencing its most successful and lucrative year to date. The French Parliament consists of two chambers: the National Assembly and the Senate. Unlike the United States’ two-party system, France has a multi-party political system. This year, the RN had its most successful election campaign to date — securing 37.3% of the popular vote and 142 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly, according to the New York Times. Having placed second and third in the two previous presidential elections, this recent success, albeit not in a presidential election, offers new hope for the party’s presidential aspirations in 2027. However, the potential consequences of an embezzlement trial involving the NR may severely impact their chances.
It has been alleged that twenty-five top officials of the National Rally, including former leader Marine Le Pen, used money reserved for EU aides to instead pay staff of the National Rally. Although the NR has already paid the EU one million euros since the trial began, the EU’s legal team requests an additional 2.7 million euros according to CNN. If found guilty, potential punishments for each official on trial include being barred from running for political office for ten years, up to ten years in prison and fines up to one million euros, according to France 24.
The upcoming presidential election in 2027 will be competitive, with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron of the Renaissance party stepping down due to term limits. Without an incumbent — who often enjoys a significant financial advantage during campaign season, elections are generally considered more competitive. As a result, it is an opportunity the NR can not afford to lose. To maximize their chances of victory, the NR will need to concern themselves with maintaining a positive public image amidst the potential consequences of a guilty conviction.
The NR’s views on the EU and similar past events suggest a guilty verdict will do little to sour public opinion. Many NR voters already have a negative view of the EU, viewing it as corrupt and anti-democratic. Some even feel the EU is a nuisance that involves itself in matters where it does not belong. Voters may even support the embezzlement, reframing it as a French political party using a corrupt organization’s money to support French interests. And thus far, Le Pen and her defense have fed into this narrative. Euronews reported that Le Pen has accused the trial of being overly political and unjust, suggesting that criticism of the EU is the reason they are being persecuted.
Furthermore, embezzlement trials and accusations of financial fraud have become par for the course in French politics, with major figures from all across the political aisle having faced similar accusations. According to the Guardian, centrist and the Democratic Movement’s leader François Fillon was found guilty of embezzlement and using public funds to pay his wife for doing nearly non existent “work.” This is especially significant considering Fillon has been a close ally of Macron, allowing the NR to highlight perceived double standards and selective prosecution, reinforcing the narrative of persecution. On the left, the major party France Unbowed has also been investigated for creating “fake jobs,” although no charges were made.
The reaction of the American public to Trump’s convictions may help us gain a glimpse into the potential reaction of French voters if Le Pen is found guilty. Public perception of Trump following his convictions has been relatively unchanged among his core supporters, who view the verdicts with skepticism and often attribute them to political views and bias. Polls conducted by POLITICO/Ipsos found that although the convictions negatively affected the Independent Party's views on Trump, overall opinions on Trump barely changed. Many Americans also had doubts about the fairness of the conviction, with around half of the general public believing the trial was politically motivated and only ten percent of those with a positive view of Trump believing that the trial was not politically motivated. It is likely to see a similar reaction among NR’s supporters if they were found guilty, with their main base expressing suspicions of political interference.
The growing immunity of political elites from legal consequences threatens the fundamental principle of equal justice under law. While ordinary citizens in both the United States and France face devastating, lifelong consequences — including social stigma and limited employment prospects — for criminal convictions, politicians facing serious charges continue to draw massive support and campaign donations.
